If Joker Gets Canned, Blame Hartline?

It's no secret that entering this football season University of Kentucky football coach Joker Phillips has toasted buns from sitting on the proverbial hot seat.  Some speculate that if he does not lead the Wildcats to a bowl game, his fate is sealed and the majority of the fan base that is clamoring for his head on a platter will have their wish fulfilled. 

Phillips enters the 2012 season with an 11-14 career mark as a head coach and is 0-1 in bowl games.  Hardly a record that screams success.  Of those 14 losses, there have been several disappointments, perhaps the greatest being last year's lackluster performance against the archrival Louisville Cardinals.  Who knows what the season could have been like if the Cats were able to pull that one out?  Assuming they win that game, and no other games the rest of the season are affected, they would have completed the regular season at 6-6 and would have appeared in their sixth consecutive bowl game.

As devastating as that game was for Coach Phillips (many believe that marked a changing of the guard in the Bluegrass State, shifting the power from Lexington to Louisville), perhaps the most damning loss on his resume came in the 2011 BBVA Compass Bowl against Pittsburgh.  The game was a battle between two schools that should have been going in opposite directions on the football ladder.  UK had made its fifth consecutive bowl game, a feat never before accomplished in school history, and Pittsburgh, favored by many to win the Big East, had a disappointing season that resulted in the firing of coach Dave Wannstedt.  Newly hired replacement, Michael Haywood, was arrested for domestic abuse and subsequently fired after two weeks on the job and only one week before the bowl game. Momentum should have definitely been on the side of the Wildcats.

So what went wrong?  For starters, a fan base who was spoiled by Music City Bowl and Liberty Bowl championships believed the BBVA Compass Bowl to be beneath them.  The fan support for the Cats dwindled at an alarming rate and the usually supportive Big Blue Nation turned their noses up at buying tickets.  Another problem was that the game was actually played on January 8, 2011; a week after most major bowls had already been played.  It seemed an eternity had passed since the Kentucky Wildcats had met up with the Tennessee Volunteers on November 26, 2010, making the bowl seem as if it were part of a new season.

But the most likely cause for the ugly performance by the men in blue was the loss of their leader, senior quarterback, Mike Hartline.  Hartline, who was coming off the breakout season that the team desperately needed, was suspended for the BBVA Compass Bowl after having a drunken run-in with authorities two weeks after the loss to Tennessee.  The stunning arrest seemed completely out of character for a guy who had worked hard to transform from much maligned and hated to almost liked and appreciated.   Regardless of how fans felt about the senior QB, his numbers for the 2010 season are some of the best for a single season in school history.

Coming into that season, Hartline had started 14 games at the University of Kentucky and had an 8-6 record with a bowl win.  His career numbers were not great, but serviceable: 2,468 yards passing with 15 touchdowns and interceptions each.  In 12 starts in 2010, Hartline threw for 3,178 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.  The numbers speak volumes about the improvement he made as field general.

Hartline's lapse of judgment proved to be too much for a deflated team to overcome.  Sophomore quarterback, Morgan Newton, stepped in to take Hartline's place.  Newton had started 8 games the previous season and had some success, beating both Georgia and Auburn on the road, but most would tell you he was riding the coattails of stud running back, Derrick Locke, and Mr. There's Nothing I Can't Do, Randall Cobb.  Newton had not started a game in 2010 and his lack of familiarity with the offense and teammates was glaring.  Newton's inability to move the offense allowed Pitt to take advantage and dominate the time of possession in the final three quarters; 25:16 to 18:44.  The Cats were outscored 27-7 in that span. 

Nobody knows if the outcome would have been different had Hartline played.  It is possible that the same thing would have happened; but I would venture to say it would have been unlikely.  A team with a proven leader who had started over two seasons' worth of games and had a bowl win under his belt would stand a much better chance than a relatively unproven sophomore with less than a season's worth of starts and no track record of being able to command an offense.

Just for the sake of argument, let's say that Hartline plays that game and the Wildcat offense performs up to par, keeping the defense fresh, and wins the game.  Joker Phillips finishes his first season with a winning record, a bowl win, and ends the perpetual losing streak to the Ol' Ball Coach. Even with a dismal 5-7 follow-up, including another streak busting win against Tennessee, the coach's seat would not be nearly as hot as it is currently. 

With a huge roster turnover from 2011, Joker Phillips faces the daunting task of winning six games in 2012, half of which will probably have to come against SEC opponents.  We can debate from now until the coach's fate is ultimately decided later this season about the justification of firing Phillips, but who knew a seemingly obsolete bowl game played nearly two years ago could be what decides the future of a man who has given most of his adult life to the University of Kentucky football program?