Pick 'em, Dan-O

We are nearly a month into the college football season and we have already had some amazing upsets, some teams emerge from nowhere, some show they aren't who we think they are (shout out to Denny Green on that one), and some who have just confused us.  A few weeks ago, I even attempted to pick a few games myself and managed a decent showing for the opening weekend with a 3-3 record.  Now that I have seen several of these teams, I have expanded by horizons for week 4 and have added 11 games to the pick 'em slate; and this time I am going to leave my heart out of the pick and try to give an honest assessment (which will be hard for one game in particular).

SEC GotW

Missouri vs. (7) South Carolina

Missouri is coming off a nice home win against Arizona St. but they are still looking for their first conference win as a member of the SEC.  This could be the one they have been waiting for since announcing they were switching conferences.  But dual-threat QB James Franklin (not to be confused with Vandy's head coach) will have his work cut out for him going into a hostile SEC environment for the first time.  South Carolina received good news today when it was announced that QB Connor Shaw, who has been nursing a shoulder injury, will start against the Tigers.  Look for workhorse, stud RB Marcus Lattimore to have a heavy workload.  South Carolina will be without safety D.J. Swearinger who is suspended by the SEC for an illegal hit in last week's game. Even so, I am afraid the Ol' Ball Coach will notch another win this week.

Score: South Carolina 31  Missouri 21

SEC GotW Runner-up

Vanderbilt vs. (5) Georgia

Vanderbilt is once again trying to prove they can matchup with the big dogs in the SEC.  Although they handed it to Presbyterian last week, James Franklin's (not to be confused with the Mizzou QB) Vandy is a hard team to get a read on so far this season.  Jordan Rodgers will have to be flawless against a swarming UGA defense.  Georgia, on the other hand, is looking to prove that they are worthy of a top five ranking.  Georgia's biggest problem so far this season has been with disciplinary issues.  They have had a multitude of players, mostly on defense, who have run amok off the field and had to pay the piper.  As they keep getting these guys back on the field, the defense should perform at a higher level taking the pressure off of the offense to carry the load.  Look for Vandy to still be looking for their first SEC win after the game.

Score: Georgia 34  Vanderbilt 17

Pac 12 GotW

(22) Arizona vs. (3) Oregon

When Rich Rodriguez was named the new Arizona Wildcat coach in the offseason, many wondered how quickly he would have them winning ballgames.  The answer seems to be rather quickly.  Rich Rod’s spread offense is perfectly suited for the Pac 12 conference.  Senior QB Matt Scott has winged the ball for nearly 1,000 yards with 7 TDs and only one INT thus far.  But can Rich Rod's spread out gun that of Chip Kelly’s Ducks.  Oregon finds itself in a familiar spot, ranked solidly in the top 5.  While the Ducks have not faced a BCS opponent, they have handled the teams they have played the way they should.  Oregon freshman QB Marcus Mariota has proven to be more than capable so far and they have a two-headed monster at RB with Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas.  Look for a few light bulbs to need replacing on the scoreboard after this one. 

Score: Oregon 48  Arizona 33

Pac 12 GotW Runner-up

Oregon St. vs. (19) UCLA

The Pac 12 has settled in nicely as the number two conference in the country after three weeks of play.  This matchup is huge for both teams.  The Beavers had a week off after their dominant defensive performance against Wisconsin and look to be challenged by Jim Mora, Jr.’s new look Bruins.  With a win in this game, UCLA would be sending a message that the Trojans don’t have the only game in town.  Freshman QB Brett Hundley has played like a veteran and RB Jonathan Franklin (not to be confused with either James in the SEC) has already rushed for over 500 yards in just three games.  Don't be surprised if this turns out to be the best game of the week.

Score: UCLA 27  Oregon St. 23

ACC GotW
(10) Clemson vs. (4) Florida St.

The ACC really needs this game to live up to the hype that a top ten matchup on primetime, national TV implies.  Clemson defeated Auburn in the first game of the season for a solid win against an SEC school.  The Tigers have many weapons (Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Ellington, etc.) and hope to utilize them all to gain an advantage in the Atlantic division.  Florida St. is looking to prove that they are back, even though coach Jimbo Fisher says he doesn't know what that means.  The Seminoles played Cream Puff U and Cupcake Community College to open the season before dominating Wake Forest last week.  FSU QB E.J. Manuel (who seems as if he has been there long enough to be tenured faculty) provides a steady hand at the helm of the Seminole offense.  Maybe Coach Fisher will have a better understanding of what it means to be back after the Noles take this one.

Score: Florida St. 41  Clemson 34

Big 12 GotW

(15) Kansas St. vs. (6) Oklahoma

Very few coaches are as synonymous with their football programs as is Bill Snyder at Kansas State.  If Coach Snyder can lead his team to a tough road victory over Oklahoma this weekend, it may just catapult them all the way to the Big 12 Championship.  Leading the way for the Wildcats is Heisman hopeful QB Collin Klein, who can run and pass.  Sooners coach Bob Stoops knows better than to underestimate a Snyder coached team and will have his guys ready to play.  The Sooners are led by QB Landry Jones, who seems like he has been at Oklahoma since they became a state in 1907.  The winner will grab the driver's seat for the conference title.

Score: Kansas St. 31  Oklahoma 28

Validation GotW

(18) Michigan vs. (11) Notre Dame

This is a game that makes me wish that ties were still allowed in college football because at the end of the day I don't want to pick a winner.  In this classic rivalry, Michigan has gotten the best of Notre Dame the past three seasons, winning all three games by four points and scoring a touchdown in the last minute of the game.  Michigan is led by senior QB Denard "Shoelace" Robinson who should prove to be a more difficult match for the Notre Dame defense than Michigan State did last week.  Speaking of the Notre Dame D, how about last week?  They absolutely stymied Michigan State, led by gutsy senior LB Manti Te'o.  No matter how you feel about Notre Dame, and I think I have made clear my opinion, you have to be inspired by Te'o's performance a few days after the passing of both his grandmother and girlfriend.  Don't expect the same kind of performance this week from the Irish D but they will get the job done.

Score: Notre Dame 24 Michigan 17

 

Hmmm GotW

Rutgers vs. Arkansas

Rutgers has started the 2012 season by winning their first three games.  Arkansas's chance for a dream season was upended by an ill-fated motorcycle ride in the offseason and has only gotten worse the past two weeks after losing to Louisiana-Monroe in a shocker and being completely dismantled by Alabama.  If Arkansas has any hopes of regaining control of this tailspin, they must beat the Scarlet Knights.  There is no word yet about whether Arkansas QB has been cleared to play after suffering a concussion two weeks ago.

Score: Rutgers 27  Arkansas 24

Mid-major GotW
Southern Mississippi vs. Western Kentucky

Southern Mississippi has shown in years past that even though they play in Conference USA, they can play with the big boys from the big conferences.  That has not carried over so far this season, though, as the Golden Eagles are looking for their first win.  They are not likely to get it against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  The Toppers and coach Willie Taggart are coming off the biggest win they've had since moving up to the FBS series against the University of Kentucky. 

Score: WKU 35  So Miss 17

 

Trap GotW

Baylor vs. Louisiana-Monroe

What a difference a year makes.  Baylor surely misses their Heisman trophy winning QB from a year ago.  Although they have won their first two games of the season, the Bears struggled mightily early on against Sam Houston State.  Their opponent, the Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe, have huge momentum.  They defeated (8) Arkansas in overtime two weeks ago and took Auburn to OT last week.  And Baylor is making the trip to ULM.

Score: ULM 34 Baylor 31 OT

 

Redemption GotW

BYU vs. (24) Boise St.

As is often the case, both programs really need to win this game.  BYU is coming off one of the most bizarre endings in college football history when Utah fans had to storm the field three times before finally being able to claim victory over the Cougars.  (If you haven't seen it, You Tube it).  Boise State's run against BCS schools came to halt the first weekend of the season when they lost to Michigan State. 

 

Score: Boise St. 44  BYU 26

The Curse of the Bear?

Well, I've been here before and, sadly, history tells me it won't be the last time.  After enjoying a rare five-year run where it was beginning to feel as if the University of Kentucky had been onto something and was really making strides in its football program, I'm afraid the real Kentucky is back following a 32-31 loss to Western Kentucky.  The hot seat on Coach Joker Phillips could melt steel and there is virtually no way for him to save his job barring a miracle like the one that happened on 34th Street.  And, regardless of my opinion on the matter, if Santa Claus brings Phillips another season as head coach, the faithful (and I use that term loosely) will be seething. 

So what is the problem with UK football?  Why can't they establish long-running success as a football program?  One obvious answer is they play in the most brutal conference in college football; the SEC.  But really, the true nature of Kentucky's dismal gridiron tradition has its roots firmly planted six decades in the past.   Let's take a look back at the seminal moment that forever altered two different programs within the University of Kentucky athletic department.

In 1946, a man named Paul Bryant was hired as the new football coach for the Wildcats.  He was coming from Maryland where he had only spent one year.  He was a tough-nosed, unforgiving 33 year-old coach who preferred to go by his nickname, Bear.  (Legend has it that he earned the nickname from wrestling a captive bear for a theater promotion at the age of 13.)  His success was immediate, winning seven ball games in his first season.  He led UK to eight wins the next season and their first ever bowl appearance, The Great Lakes Bowl, which the Wildcats won.  His best run came from 1949-51 when his teams won 28 games and appeared in the Orange, Sugar, and Cotton Bowls.    In the 1950 Sugar Bowl, Bryant's Wildcats defeated an Oklahoma team that had won 31 consecutive games.  According to some polls and modern computer rankings, the University of Kentucky can claim a national championship for that season.  In total, Bryant spent eight seasons at Kentucky and finished with a career record of 60-23-5 and never had a losing season.  Bryant remains the all-time leader in career victories at the University of Kentucky.

Bryant was not the only coaching legend at Kentucky at that time, though.  Prowling the bench on the hardwood for the Wildcats was an irascible veteran coach named Adolph Rupp, who had a nickname of his own; the Baron.  Rupp had already been at Kentucky for 16 years by the time Bryant was hired and had led the basketball Cats to several conference championships and a Final Four.  It was while Bryant was at UK with Rupp that the basketball program began to assert itself as an elite program.  From 1948-51, Rupp was able to lead his teams to three NCAA championships, coinciding with the same years that Bryant was having his best run on the football field. (Even though Florida is credited with becoming the only school to ever hold the NCAA football and basketball championships in the same scholastic season, it can be argued that Kentucky did it in the 1950-51 season.) The University of Kentucky was poised to become the predominant school in all of college athletics.  So what happened?

The answer, it seems, is complicated and murky.  One legendary tale has it that Bryant was offended when the university bought Rupp a brand-new, four-door Cadillac and he was only given a fancy cigarette lighter.  While this story is rather funny and was told tongue-in-cheek by Bryant, there is nothing to corroborate its validity.  Another tale is that Bryant was upset by a scandal that had taken place with Rupp's teams involving point shaving.  In 1951, a story broke about Kentucky legends Alex Groza and Ralph Beard being involved in a points shaving event during the 1948-1949 season.  The subsequent investigation resulted in multiple NCAA rules violations and the first ever death penalty as the Wildcats were not allowed to have a basketball team for the 1952-53 season.  It is speculated that Bryant became antsy due to the increased NCAA scrutiny of all Kentucky athletic programs and decided to go elsewhere where the NCAA would not be sniffing around so much.  This theory seems to make much more sense.  But in a 1966 interview with Sports Illustrated, Bryant said, "When I try to put my finger on it I can't say exactly why I left Kentucky, but one thing I want to make clear. I never tried to get Bernie Shively's job as athletic director, and the athletic directorship had nothing to do with what you could call a clash of objectives between me and Adolph Rupp."  He also went on to say that leaving UK was one of the biggest mistakes he had ever made; this coming after winning three NCAA championships at Alabama.  To further dispel myth and legend, many accounts show that Bear Bryant and Adolph Rupp remained amiable towards each other and considered themselves to be friends until Rupp passed away in 1977.

So, to put it simply, the best guess as to what derailed the Kentucky football program was the points shaving scandal from 1951 that involved the Wildcat basketball program.  In an odd sort of way, the program that was not punished now suffers from the Curse of the Bear akin to the Red Sox' Curse of the Bambino.  In the years after Bryant left Kentucky to go to Texas A & M, the Wildcat football team has struggled to maintain any semblance of success.  UK has had ten head coaches since Bryant departed 59 seasons ago and only one (Blanton Collier) has left the university with a winning record, and he had the benefit of replacing Bryant and having some of the Bear's recruits play for him.  The only other time the football program has come close to making a splash on the national scene was under Fran Curci when his 1976 team finished 9-3 with a Peach Bowl win and followed it up with a 10-1 season in 1977.  But, as the Curse would have it, the Wildcats were ineligible for postseason play due to NCAA violations.  The UK football program was once again beset by NCAA violations during the Hall Mumme era.  It was only recently when Rich Brooks was able to lead the Wildcats to four consecutive bowls, winning three, did people begin to think that the Curse had been broken.  But as this past weekend shows us, that has not been the case after all.

In what appears to be a long season ahead for the Wildcats football program, athletic director Mitch Barnhart and the powers that be at Kentucky have a lot of tough decisions to make.  With an unsettled fan base and empty seats in the stadium, Joker Phillips's future may have as much to do with performance off the field as on it.  One thing that Barnhart and company will have to consider when deciding on whether or not to replace Coach Phillips is who can reverse this relentless curse?  So far, that question has seemed to stymie countless ADs and boosters for the past six decades.