What Say You? Kimbrel or Chapman?

The game of baseball is always evolving.  When Babe Ruth played, there was no such thing as a closer; you only went to the bullpen when it was absolutely necessary.  No one had ever heard of a pitch count or a five-man rotation.  But over time, the game has changed and adjusted and now every single roster spot has a purpose.  There is no one on the bench that does not have a specific role.  You have the right-handed pinch hitting specialist, the left-handed pinch hitting specialist, the defensive specialist, platoon guys, left-handed pitchers out of the pen to get out lefties only, right-handed pitchers out of the pen to get out righties only, and your long relief guys.  Everyone has a function right down to the twenty-fifth man on the team.

The game has become specialized in every aspect and it has happened over the past two and half decades; especially when it comes to relief pitchers.  Before the mid-1980s, the average bullpen would have had about five guys; carrying eleven pitchers on the roster would have been unusual. Now, most teams carry twelve pitchers; each with a specialized role.  The most coveted of these specialized positions in the bullpen is that of closer.

The idea of how to use a closer was forever changed during the 1987 season when Tony LaRussa had the idea to use a 33 year-old, washed up starting pitcher who had been relegated to the pen as a closer.  The move worked; propelling the Oakland A’s to three consecutive World Series (one of which they won) and Dennis Eckersley to the Hall of Fame.  While baseball had seen a bevy of exciting closers in the prior decade (Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter, et al.), none were used in the manner that Eckersley would be over the next decade.  From the beginning of the 1988 season until the end of 1997, Eckersley saved 386 games in 453 opportunities. 

So, what was the major difference? Eckersley was charged with primarily coming in and pitching only one inning to close out the game.  In years past, a closer would come in and pitch two, or three if necessary, innings to finish a ball game.  While, Eckersley did accumulate some inning plus saves, as time progressed the bullpen required set up men to bridge the gap from starter to closer, virtually eliminating the need for multiple inning saves.

As we near to stretch run for the 2012 campaign, two young closers have emerged as guys who any general manager would love to build their bullpen around.  And when you take a look at both of theses guys, there numbers are remarkably similar, which is why both are being considered early NL Cy Young contenders.  Both are just 24 years old and were named to the All-Star Team this season and both are dominating hitters in the heat of a pennant race.  Of course, the two pitchers I am talking about are the Southern flamethrower for the Atlanta Braves, Craig Kimbrel, and Mr. Cuban Missile himself, Aroldis Chapman, of the Cincinnati Reds.  Here’s a peak at what both have to offer.

Craig Kimbrel

When Kimbrel was called up to the major leagues the first time in May of 2010, just days before turning 22, he made the decision to pick the brain of then Atlanta closer, Billy Wagner, who was retiring at the end of the year.  Kimbrel was expected to inherit the closer’s role in 2011 so anything he could glean from one of the best left-handed relievers to ever close ballgames would be priceless.  Kimbrel, who happens to be a righty but has a similar stature and build as Wagner, parlayed that into immediate success.  Kimbrel ran away with the Rookie of the Year award last season, notching a league leading 46 saves and blowing only eight.  The only problem in that storybook season was the fatigue that settled in during the month of September when Atlanta suffered an historic collapse (let’s hope that what happened in 2011 stays in 2011) and missed the playoffs.  Here’s a look at what the humble righty has done so far this season.

G    IP   SV  BS  W-L  ERA  WHIP  H  BB  K   K/9

48  48    32   2     0-1    1.13    0.65    19  12  86  16.1

Aroldis Chapman

During the World Baseball Classic in 2009, one of the shining stars was a twenty-one year old, skinny left-handed Cuban with a lightning bolt arm.  Everyone knew that eventually he would defect and make his way to the major leagues and that is exactly what happened when the Cuban national team happened to be playing in a tournament in the Netherlands later that year.  The only surprise was the small market major league team who landed such a big fish: the historically miserly Cincinnati Reds.  With Chapman locked in for five seasons at $25 million, the Reds were readying themselves to take a leap in the standings.  After spending most of the 2010 season in the minors, trying to determine whether he fit the rotation or the bullpen better (as well as trying to gain better command of his electric stuff) Chapman finally made his debut in late August as the Reds were poised to win their first division in fifteen years.  After a few ups and downs early in 2011, Chapman rebounded and put together a solid rookie season.  Several times his fastball has been clocked at 105 MPH and his changeup has more speed on in it than your average starter.  This season, after starting the season as set up man, Chapman has emerged as the closer for the team with the best record in baseball.  Here is a look at what the flamboyant lefty has been able to accomplish so far this season.

G   IP   SV  BS  W-L  ERA  WHIP  H  BB  K    K/9

60  64  33    37   5-4   1.27     0.72    30  16  113 15.9

Verdict

While I don’t think you would suffer by picking either guy to close out games for your team, and the numbers are really too close to help one make the call, the marginal differences are enough for me to decide on whom I would take to close out games for me.  Craig Kimbrel.  It really boils down to minutia at this point.  While both young men are just 24 years of age, Kimbrel seems to carry himself with more maturity on and off the field.  Chapman, at times, has found himself at the center of controversy (on the field for doing somersaults off the mound after closing a game, off the field for getting arrested for driving 90+ MPH on a suspended license), but hopefully these are the mistakes of a young man who has found himself to be a multimillionaire and a superstar before ever putting on a major league uniform.  This reason alone is enough to sway my vote.  So, what say you, folks?  Kimbrel or Chapman?

*This is the first in a series of What Say You? comparisons over the next few weeks.  Coming soon, look for the Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? comparison.

From Moon Shot to Moonshots

A few minutes before 11:00 PM on July 20, 1969, the world that we live in was forever changed.  No longer could one say that man had never walked on the moon.  Neil Armstrong, a 38 year-old astronaut from Ohio, greeted his nation from the lunar surface by saying, “That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind."  This accomplishment is one of the greatest achievements in world history and it held particular political significance during the Cold War.  As the U.S. was seemingly losing ground to the U.S.S.R. in the space race, President John F. Kennedy made the declaration in May of 1961 that America would put a man on the moon before the end of the decade.  Mission accomplished!

Being a history buff, especially regarding the space program, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the passing of Neil Armstrong, a great American hero, over the weekend.  His accomplishment, along with those of Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins (who were also on the Apollo 11 mission), is a story of perseverance and inspiration that is indicative of the American spirit.

Thinking about how that day forever shaped history, my mind somehow began drifting towards baseball.  I started thinking of who are the best major league baseball players to be born after July 20, 1969.  Who are the best to play the game yet have never lived in a world where man had not walked on the moon?  Here’s what I came up with.

Lineup

1. Ichiro RF: Since arriving from Japan before the 2001 season, there has not been a better pure hitter in the game of baseball.  Ichiro has amassed over 2,500 hits, more than 400 stolen bases, and numerous awards including the rookie of the year and MVP in the same season. 

2. Derek Jeter SS: Perhaps the most iconic figure of his era, the Yankee captain is now mentioned in the same breath as Gehrig, Mantle, DiMaggio, Berra, and Ruth.  He has collected over 3,200 hits and before it is said and done he may pass Hank Aaron for third on that list.  The consummate professional, Jeter is a nice blend of a throwback player in a modern game.  Oh, and did I mention he has five World Series rings?

3. Albert Pujols 1B: As young as Albert Pujols is, he has the chance to be mentioned in the same company of legends like Hank Aaron and Willie Mays for having some of the most impressive careers numbers in the history of the game.  Only 32 years old, Pujols has already hit 473 homers and driven in over 1,400 runs.  And he has more than 2,200 career hits.  If he can remain healthy, he should reach 700 homeruns and 2,000 RBIs.  Those accomplishments will look nice beside his three MVPs and two World Series rings.

4. Ken Griffey, Jr. CF: Ken Griffey, Jr. barely makes the cut on this team, being born four months after the moon landing.  Griffey hit over 600 career homers and won 10 gold gloves.  If not for the strike that ended the 1994 season, he may have made at run at Roger Maris’s then single season homerun record.  If not for injuries late in his career and playing on mostly mediocre teams, his legacy would shine much brighter.

5. Alex Rodriguez DH: On my team as a DH only because he split his career between playing shortstop and third base, A-Rod has a chance to retire as only the fourth man in baseball history with over 700 homeruns.  Besides the homers, he will probably surpass the coveted 3,000 hit mark next season.  But perhaps the most astonishing stat on his resume is his 316 career steals.  Not many sluggers have those kind of wheels. 

6. Chipper Jones 3B: When his career ends later this season, Chipper Jones will go down as one of the greatest switch hitters in the history of the game.  With over 2,700 hits and 460 homeruns, he is also one of the greatest third basemen of all time.  His unselfish play (asking to move to the outfield for a few seasons in order to sign another third baseman is a perfect example) and leadership are second to none. 

7. Matt Holliday LF: I even surprised myself with this inclusion on the roster.  Matt Holliday is one day older than Pujols and even though his numbers are not in the same league as Albert's, they are pretty hard to ignore.  Since breaking into the league with the Rockies in 2004, there has not been a better left fielder in all of baseball.  His worst season batting average came in his rookie campaign when he only hit .290.  By the time the season ends, he will be over 1,500 hits, have over 225 homers, and should pass the 1,000 RBI mark next season.

8. Robinson Cano 2B: The youngest player on the list, Cano has all the tools to be the next Yankee great.  Cano has already accumulated over 1,400 career hits and has proven to be highly durable, missing only 10 games over the past six seasons.  On his current pace, he has a great chance to become one of the greatest second basemen of any generation.

9. Ivan Rodriguez C: Ivan Rodriguez may be the best pure hitter at catcher to ever play the game.  He also may be the best defensive catcher the game has ever seen.  Ivan finished his career with 2,844 hits (the most ever for a catcher), 311 homers, 13 gold gloves, and 46% caught stealing rate.  And for someone who played catcher, he was extremely durable, breaking into the majors at age 19 and retiring at the age of 40.  As it stands, he is one of the top five catchers in the history of the game.

Pitching Staff

1. C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia broke into the majors with the Indians in 2001 and has been a dominant lefty from the beginning.  Over the course of his twelve year career, he has a career record of 189-99 with over 2,100 strikeouts.  He has been a workhorse from the beginning of his career, only throwing fewer than 190 innings twice.  It is amazing that he has only won one Cy Young award.  Barring injury, C.C. is possibly the last pitcher with a shot of reaching the coveted 300 win mark.

2.  Roy Halladay: The man called Doc has had an amazing career, to say the least.  He broke in with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1998 and nearly threw a no-hitter in his second career start.  He finally broke through with a no-no during the 2010 season when he threw a perfect game in May and followed that up with only the second postseason no hitter ever against the Cincinnati Reds.  He has a career mark of 196-99, has over 2,000 strikeouts and has probably been the most dominant pitcher in the game since 2006.

3. Tim Hudson: Tim Hudson came up with the Oakland A's in 1999 and has been winning ballgames ever since.  He has a career record of  194-101 and has nearly 1,800 strikeouts.  His stuff is not as eye-popping as either Sabathia or Halladay, but his grit and determination on the mound are unrivaled.  He recently became only the fifth pitcher in Atlanta Braves history to record 100 wins since the franchise moved there in 1966.

4. Billy Wagner: Billy Wagner may be the most dominant left-handed reliever in baseball history.  Wagner finished his career with 422 saves, a K/9 inning ratio of 11.9, and a WHIP below one.  Wagner had planned to retire after the 2009 season but was talked out of it by Bobby Cox, who was himself retiring after the 2010 season.  In his true final season, Wagner tallied 37 saves, causing many to wonder why he would not return for another season.

5.  Mariano Rivera: Simply put, Rivera is the best closer the game has ever seen.  Mo, as he is affectionately known, has obliterated the all-time saves record, accruing 608 in his amazing career.  Most of his success has come on the back of one, single pitch: the cut fastball.  His unthinkable numbers are made more impressive by the fact that he did not make his major league debut until the age of 25.  Oh, yeah.  Did I mention that he also has five World Series rings?  When he retires, the season award for the best closer should be named for him.

 
A couple of guys that I really wanted to add to the team were Mike Mussina and Mike Piazza, but both were born in 1968; a year too early.  But even without these greats, the aforementioned roster is formidable.  And as always, thanks to the folks who maintain www.baseball-reference.com; I would love to have that job.  So, in memory of Neil Armstrong, I dub this team the Outta This World Team. 

I Love the Smell of Pigskin in the Autumn

Labor Day is next weekend and its arrival marks the unofficial end of summer.  But don't cry for summer passing the torch to autumn because Labor Day also marks something else far more important: the beginning of the college football season.    With that said, here is look at some of the opening week's most interesting games.

Legitimacy GotW (Game of the Week) *2011 record in parentheses

14 Clemson (10-4)  vs 25 Auburn (8-5) in Atlanta, GA

This is a matchup between two teams looking to gain legitimacy in the national championship picture.  Clemson looked like a dark horse contender through the first eight games of last season.  They finished by losing four of their final six games, including a trouncing by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl.  The good news coming into this season, though, is the Tigers return many dynamic offensive weapons, including junior quarterback Tajh Boyd (a possible Heisman candidate) and sophomore wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

Auburn is two years removed from a national championship and would love nothing more than to be a contender in the SEC, which by default would make them a contender for the national title.  The problem is Auburn is stacked in a division with the likes of Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas who are all ranked in the preseason top 10; not to mention a game against SEC East foe Georgia (also in the top 10).  The War Eagles are going to start the season with sophomore QB Kiehl Frazier under center and will have to overcome the dismissal of star RB Michael Dyer.  In order for Auburn to attain legitimacy, they cannot afford a loss to a nonconference opponent due to their murderer's row conference schedule. 

Prediction: Clemson 31  Auburn 24

Championship GotW

8 Michigan (11-2)  vs 2 Alabama (12-1) in Dallas

It has been a few years since Michigan has been talked about as a factor on the national scene but nothing could put them back on that scene quicker than upsetting the defending national champs on a primetime stage in the House That Jerry Built.  The Wolverines are led by senior quarterback Denard "Shoelace" Robinson, a dual threat Heisman candidate, and junior running back Fitzgerald Toussaint.  The Maize and Blue have some holes to fill on D but do return all starting linebackers from a year ago and do have some experience on the line and in the secondary. 

What more can be said about Alabama?  The Crimson Tide has won two of the past three championships and are coached by the only man to win three BCS titles, Nick Saban.  They lost a lot on both sides of the ball from last year, but at the football factory, you just replace them and keep on chugging.  Overlooked and underappreciated junior quarterback, A.J. McCarron, returns to provide a steady hand at the helm of the offense and the defense will feature a bunch of guys who don’t have name recognition on Labor Day but will by the time Thanksgiving rolls around.

Prediction: Alabama 23  Michigan 17

Maker/Breaker GotW

9 South Carolina (11-2) vs Vanderbilt (6-7)

Steve Spurrier has been able to accomplish one of the most difficult tasks in college football while at South Carolina.  He has taken a school that has been historically mediocre and made them into a legitimate force.  Favored by several to win the SEC East, a loss to Vanderbilt could definitely be a season breaker for the Gamecocks.  They return junior quarterback Connor Shaw and hope workhorse junior running back, Marcus Lattimore, can return to form after a season-ending knee injury late last season.  Also, look for top 2011 recruit Jadaveon Clowney to have a monster season at defensive end for the Ol’ Ball Coach.

Vanderbilt exceeded expectations last season in coach James Franklin's first season on the job.  This year, the Commodores enter with expectations of making some noise in the SEC East.  A good way to do that would be a potential season making upset victory over a top 10 school like South Carolina.  The 'Dores return senior quarterback Jordan Rodgers (brother of Aaron), and top running back, Zac Stacy. 

Prediction: Vanderbilt 27  South Carolina 24

Intriguing GotW

22 Boise State(12-1)  vs 13 Michigan State (11-3)

Boise State is not afraid to play any team, anywhere, at any time.  There is perhaps no more underappreciated program over the past six or seven years than BSU, who is constantly being raked over the coals for playing in such a weak conference.  But when given the opportunity to play the bigger programs, all the Broncos have done is win: Oklahoma, Oregon, Georgia, TCU to name a few.  When they head to Lansing next weekend, though, it will be without stud quarterback Kellen Moore who graduated last season. 

Michigan State is much like Clemson; seemingly always on the fringe of something greater, yet not able to achieve it.  After losing in the conference championship game last season, this could be the year the Spartans finally breakthrough in the Big Ten.   The Spartans lose long time starting QB Kirk Cousins to the NFL but do return junior RB Le'Veon Bell  to tote the mail. 

Prediction: Michigan State 27  Boise State 17

Gotta Have It GotW

Kentucky (5-7) vs  25 Louisville (7-6)

Kentucky's five year bowl streak came to a halt last season and immediately put head coach Joker Phillips on the hot seat.  In order for Phillips to get to a fourth season, he will more than likely have to lead the Wildcats to a bowl bid this season.  For that to happen, his team will probably have to beat in-state rival Louisville.  The Wildcats don't return many weapons on either side of the ball from last season, but hope to have some new faces step up and make plays.

Louisville head coach Charlie Strong is facing expectations of a different kind.  The Cardinals are favored to win the Big East and hope to parlay that into some BCS credibility.  A loss to an underdog, in-state rival would certainly derail those thoughts.  The Cardinals return dynamic sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater and junior RB Dominique Brown.  Of course, the hallmark of any Charlie Strong team is the defense.

Prediction: Kentucky 28  Louisville 21

Who Cares GotW

Navy (5-7) vs  24 Notre Dame (8-5) in Dublin, Ireland

A few years ago, Navy shook the Notre Dame monkey off of their backs and ended an embarrassing  43 year losing streak to the Golden Domers.  Since then, the series has been evenly matched.  Going into this game, you can bet that Navy will be running the option, hoping to grind the clock and wear down the Fighting Irish defense.

In an effort to once again prove their relevance in college football, Notre Dame has scheduled the ultimate gimmick game: a matchup with a service academy in Dublin, Ireland.  Leave it to Notre Dame to challenge an inferior opponent in a gadget game thousands of miles away in front of real, fighting Irish.  Another unimpressive season would likely place head coach Brian Kelly firmly on the hot seat.   Kelly is turning to redshirt freshman QB Everett Golson to lead the way against the Midshipmen.

Prediction: Navy 33  Notre Dame 30 (2 OT)

Absurd Matchup of the Week

OKC Kindergartener Cooper Barton vs OKC School

In case you missed it this past week, Oklahoma City kindergarten student, Cooper Barton, wore a Michigan shirt to school and was asked by the principal to turn the shirt inside out because it was not an in-state school.  Yes, you read that correctly; this really happened.  Now, I can see why you would want to ask someone to remove that shirt (I find Michigan shirts offensive as well) but come on, this is just crazy.  I understand the school board policy because it was created to curb the blight of gang activity in Oklahoma City but just because gangs use colors and symbols of sports teams, we cannot ban them from society as if they are the real problem.   David Brandon, the Michigan athletic director, has already contacted the Barton family and offered them a chance to attend a Michigan home game this season.  The family has also received boxes of shirts, including one for Cooper to wear that has been printed on the outside and inside in case he ever has to turn it inside- out again. 

Prediction: The kid becomes a legend and the school district relaxes the rule, if not repealing it altogether.

I don't profess to be an expert on the game of college football and I don't hold a crystal football that allows me to see things before they happen.  These are just predictions to make the first weekend of college football a little more interesting (if that's possible).  If it turns out that my predictions are pretty good, then I will probably share more throughout the season.  If not, then you probably have seen my last predictions for a long time.

To Pitch, or Not to Pitch? That is the Strasburg Question

As September nears, the thoughts of real, dyed-in-the-wool baseball fans cannot help but drift to the pennant races.  With the additional wildcard team (which I hate but I will save that discussion for a later date) from each league making its debut in the forthcoming postseason, the chase for the playoff spots will involve more teams than ever.  And after last year’s September (which I would like to never discuss again) who knows what’s in store this year?

One thing that we know won’t be in store for September, or at least most of it, is Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg, the third year phenom out of San Diego State, is in the midst of his first full season in the major leagues and is two years removed from ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery; also known as Tommy John.  In an effort to protect the investment of the franchise and their franchise-building starter, Washington Nationals general manager, Mike Rizzo, is going to pull the plug on Strasburg’s season at some point in early September.

That probably sounded like a great idea back in February when pitchers reported to spring training.  The Washington Nationals have been nothing but lackluster since moving to D.C. in 2005.  Let’s not forget where they came from, either.  Does anyone remember the Montreal Expos?  But now, in mid-August, the idea can only seem unfathomable.

The Nationals have the best record in baseball (77-46) and are on pace to win 101 games for the season.  To put that in perspective, the franchise record came in 1979 with 95 wins and since being in the nation’s capital, they have only averaged 70 wins a season.  The only time the Nationals/Expos have ever won a division was in the strike-shortened season of 1981 where MLB came up with a harebrained idea to declare a division champ for each half of the season and have them play in a first round playoff matchup.  Because of this, the teams with the second (Expos) and third (Cardinals) overall best records were allowed to play for a chance to go to the League Championship Series.  (The Cardinals were 59-43, two games better than Montreal and got sent to the house.)

The only time the Expos ever had a legitimate contender was in 1994; another strike-shortened season.  This time, though, the strike ended the season and there were no playoffs.  When play stopped in mid-August of that year, Montreal had a six game lead on Atlanta.  In other words, the best team in franchise history has nothing to show for their feat. 

What I am getting at here is that this franchise has been one of the most undecorated in professional sports.  The opportunities to play for championships do not come along often for some teams and they should not be taken for granted.  Just because you have great, young talent now doesn’t mean you will for long.  The Nationals/Expos have been around since 1969 and have never played for a World Series so they should understand this fact.

Stephen Strasburg is 15-5 this season with a 2.85 ERA and is leading the National League in strikeouts.  Ask him if he wants to watch his teammates clinch a division championship.  Ask him if he wants to be inactive as his teammates battle to obtain a world championship.  He has already stated that “they’re gonna have to rip the ball out of my hands”.  He understands these opportunities are precious and he wants to be a part of it. 

And speaking of his teammates, don’t you think it is unfair to them to shut down a dominate starter this close to the postseason?  Anyone who knows anything about postseason baseball will tell you that come October you need dominant arms.  So how much sense would it make to take one of the most dominant in baseball and put him on the shelf?

Look, I understand where Mike Rizzo is coming from and I understand it is his team (as he has been so kind to point out to all detractors) and I applaud that he is sticking to his guns, but the game is played at the professional level to win championships.  Lifelong Expos/Nationals fans (is there such a thing?) deserve to go through the stretch run and through the playoffs with their phenomenal young ace going toe-to-toe with the best the other teams have to offer. 

It seems to me that if the Nationals were intent on limiting his number of innings and pitches thrown, they could have compensated for it better throughout the season.  Why couldn’t Strasburg have gone through extended spring training and joined the big club in early to mid-May?  Doing so would have allowed manager Davey Johnson to have his ace through the final weeks of the pennant race as well as through the month of October.  Or, they could have had him skip a turn in the rotation every third time through.  Still another option would have been to start the season with Strasburg in the bullpen; especially since last year’s closer was starting the season on the disabled list.  A power arm like his would have been nice to have pitching in the ninth inning.

As a die hard Braves nut, it won’t hurt my feelings to see the Nationals shut down Strasburg but for a baseball purist who loves the game, I cannot make sense of this decision.  I know you want to keep him healthy for a long time but if he is not hurting now, why assume that he will be?  

I am all for player safety in any sport but when you are pulling a guy for fear of him getting hurt instead of him actually being hurt, what are you accomplishing?  The bottom line is that trying to leave the training wheels on Strasburg may end up hurting in the long run.  I’m not talking from a physical standpoint, either.  What are you telling your fans?  What are you telling your players?  If I was a free agent in the coming offseason, I would look at the Nationals and say, “I’m not going there.  They aren’t trying to win.”

At this point, though, Rizzo has no choice but to shut Strasburg down since he has been talking about it since February.  So as we sit at home and watch the playoffs (and Strasburg sits on the bench and does the same), we will see how this move plays out.  If it works, great.  If not, great.  After all, the Washington Nationals are not my team; they’re Mike Rizzo’s.

If Joker Gets Canned, Blame Hartline?

It's no secret that entering this football season University of Kentucky football coach Joker Phillips has toasted buns from sitting on the proverbial hot seat.  Some speculate that if he does not lead the Wildcats to a bowl game, his fate is sealed and the majority of the fan base that is clamoring for his head on a platter will have their wish fulfilled. 

Phillips enters the 2012 season with an 11-14 career mark as a head coach and is 0-1 in bowl games.  Hardly a record that screams success.  Of those 14 losses, there have been several disappointments, perhaps the greatest being last year's lackluster performance against the archrival Louisville Cardinals.  Who knows what the season could have been like if the Cats were able to pull that one out?  Assuming they win that game, and no other games the rest of the season are affected, they would have completed the regular season at 6-6 and would have appeared in their sixth consecutive bowl game.

As devastating as that game was for Coach Phillips (many believe that marked a changing of the guard in the Bluegrass State, shifting the power from Lexington to Louisville), perhaps the most damning loss on his resume came in the 2011 BBVA Compass Bowl against Pittsburgh.  The game was a battle between two schools that should have been going in opposite directions on the football ladder.  UK had made its fifth consecutive bowl game, a feat never before accomplished in school history, and Pittsburgh, favored by many to win the Big East, had a disappointing season that resulted in the firing of coach Dave Wannstedt.  Newly hired replacement, Michael Haywood, was arrested for domestic abuse and subsequently fired after two weeks on the job and only one week before the bowl game. Momentum should have definitely been on the side of the Wildcats.

So what went wrong?  For starters, a fan base who was spoiled by Music City Bowl and Liberty Bowl championships believed the BBVA Compass Bowl to be beneath them.  The fan support for the Cats dwindled at an alarming rate and the usually supportive Big Blue Nation turned their noses up at buying tickets.  Another problem was that the game was actually played on January 8, 2011; a week after most major bowls had already been played.  It seemed an eternity had passed since the Kentucky Wildcats had met up with the Tennessee Volunteers on November 26, 2010, making the bowl seem as if it were part of a new season.

But the most likely cause for the ugly performance by the men in blue was the loss of their leader, senior quarterback, Mike Hartline.  Hartline, who was coming off the breakout season that the team desperately needed, was suspended for the BBVA Compass Bowl after having a drunken run-in with authorities two weeks after the loss to Tennessee.  The stunning arrest seemed completely out of character for a guy who had worked hard to transform from much maligned and hated to almost liked and appreciated.   Regardless of how fans felt about the senior QB, his numbers for the 2010 season are some of the best for a single season in school history.

Coming into that season, Hartline had started 14 games at the University of Kentucky and had an 8-6 record with a bowl win.  His career numbers were not great, but serviceable: 2,468 yards passing with 15 touchdowns and interceptions each.  In 12 starts in 2010, Hartline threw for 3,178 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.  The numbers speak volumes about the improvement he made as field general.

Hartline's lapse of judgment proved to be too much for a deflated team to overcome.  Sophomore quarterback, Morgan Newton, stepped in to take Hartline's place.  Newton had started 8 games the previous season and had some success, beating both Georgia and Auburn on the road, but most would tell you he was riding the coattails of stud running back, Derrick Locke, and Mr. There's Nothing I Can't Do, Randall Cobb.  Newton had not started a game in 2010 and his lack of familiarity with the offense and teammates was glaring.  Newton's inability to move the offense allowed Pitt to take advantage and dominate the time of possession in the final three quarters; 25:16 to 18:44.  The Cats were outscored 27-7 in that span. 

Nobody knows if the outcome would have been different had Hartline played.  It is possible that the same thing would have happened; but I would venture to say it would have been unlikely.  A team with a proven leader who had started over two seasons' worth of games and had a bowl win under his belt would stand a much better chance than a relatively unproven sophomore with less than a season's worth of starts and no track record of being able to command an offense.

Just for the sake of argument, let's say that Hartline plays that game and the Wildcat offense performs up to par, keeping the defense fresh, and wins the game.  Joker Phillips finishes his first season with a winning record, a bowl win, and ends the perpetual losing streak to the Ol' Ball Coach. Even with a dismal 5-7 follow-up, including another streak busting win against Tennessee, the coach's seat would not be nearly as hot as it is currently. 

With a huge roster turnover from 2011, Joker Phillips faces the daunting task of winning six games in 2012, half of which will probably have to come against SEC opponents.  We can debate from now until the coach's fate is ultimately decided later this season about the justification of firing Phillips, but who knew a seemingly obsolete bowl game played nearly two years ago could be what decides the future of a man who has given most of his adult life to the University of Kentucky football program?