Pick 'em, Dan-O

We are nearly a month into the college football season and we have already had some amazing upsets, some teams emerge from nowhere, some show they aren't who we think they are (shout out to Denny Green on that one), and some who have just confused us.  A few weeks ago, I even attempted to pick a few games myself and managed a decent showing for the opening weekend with a 3-3 record.  Now that I have seen several of these teams, I have expanded by horizons for week 4 and have added 11 games to the pick 'em slate; and this time I am going to leave my heart out of the pick and try to give an honest assessment (which will be hard for one game in particular).

SEC GotW

Missouri vs. (7) South Carolina

Missouri is coming off a nice home win against Arizona St. but they are still looking for their first conference win as a member of the SEC.  This could be the one they have been waiting for since announcing they were switching conferences.  But dual-threat QB James Franklin (not to be confused with Vandy's head coach) will have his work cut out for him going into a hostile SEC environment for the first time.  South Carolina received good news today when it was announced that QB Connor Shaw, who has been nursing a shoulder injury, will start against the Tigers.  Look for workhorse, stud RB Marcus Lattimore to have a heavy workload.  South Carolina will be without safety D.J. Swearinger who is suspended by the SEC for an illegal hit in last week's game. Even so, I am afraid the Ol' Ball Coach will notch another win this week.

Score: South Carolina 31  Missouri 21

SEC GotW Runner-up

Vanderbilt vs. (5) Georgia

Vanderbilt is once again trying to prove they can matchup with the big dogs in the SEC.  Although they handed it to Presbyterian last week, James Franklin's (not to be confused with the Mizzou QB) Vandy is a hard team to get a read on so far this season.  Jordan Rodgers will have to be flawless against a swarming UGA defense.  Georgia, on the other hand, is looking to prove that they are worthy of a top five ranking.  Georgia's biggest problem so far this season has been with disciplinary issues.  They have had a multitude of players, mostly on defense, who have run amok off the field and had to pay the piper.  As they keep getting these guys back on the field, the defense should perform at a higher level taking the pressure off of the offense to carry the load.  Look for Vandy to still be looking for their first SEC win after the game.

Score: Georgia 34  Vanderbilt 17

Pac 12 GotW

(22) Arizona vs. (3) Oregon

When Rich Rodriguez was named the new Arizona Wildcat coach in the offseason, many wondered how quickly he would have them winning ballgames.  The answer seems to be rather quickly.  Rich Rod’s spread offense is perfectly suited for the Pac 12 conference.  Senior QB Matt Scott has winged the ball for nearly 1,000 yards with 7 TDs and only one INT thus far.  But can Rich Rod's spread out gun that of Chip Kelly’s Ducks.  Oregon finds itself in a familiar spot, ranked solidly in the top 5.  While the Ducks have not faced a BCS opponent, they have handled the teams they have played the way they should.  Oregon freshman QB Marcus Mariota has proven to be more than capable so far and they have a two-headed monster at RB with Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas.  Look for a few light bulbs to need replacing on the scoreboard after this one. 

Score: Oregon 48  Arizona 33

Pac 12 GotW Runner-up

Oregon St. vs. (19) UCLA

The Pac 12 has settled in nicely as the number two conference in the country after three weeks of play.  This matchup is huge for both teams.  The Beavers had a week off after their dominant defensive performance against Wisconsin and look to be challenged by Jim Mora, Jr.’s new look Bruins.  With a win in this game, UCLA would be sending a message that the Trojans don’t have the only game in town.  Freshman QB Brett Hundley has played like a veteran and RB Jonathan Franklin (not to be confused with either James in the SEC) has already rushed for over 500 yards in just three games.  Don't be surprised if this turns out to be the best game of the week.

Score: UCLA 27  Oregon St. 23

ACC GotW
(10) Clemson vs. (4) Florida St.

The ACC really needs this game to live up to the hype that a top ten matchup on primetime, national TV implies.  Clemson defeated Auburn in the first game of the season for a solid win against an SEC school.  The Tigers have many weapons (Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Ellington, etc.) and hope to utilize them all to gain an advantage in the Atlantic division.  Florida St. is looking to prove that they are back, even though coach Jimbo Fisher says he doesn't know what that means.  The Seminoles played Cream Puff U and Cupcake Community College to open the season before dominating Wake Forest last week.  FSU QB E.J. Manuel (who seems as if he has been there long enough to be tenured faculty) provides a steady hand at the helm of the Seminole offense.  Maybe Coach Fisher will have a better understanding of what it means to be back after the Noles take this one.

Score: Florida St. 41  Clemson 34

Big 12 GotW

(15) Kansas St. vs. (6) Oklahoma

Very few coaches are as synonymous with their football programs as is Bill Snyder at Kansas State.  If Coach Snyder can lead his team to a tough road victory over Oklahoma this weekend, it may just catapult them all the way to the Big 12 Championship.  Leading the way for the Wildcats is Heisman hopeful QB Collin Klein, who can run and pass.  Sooners coach Bob Stoops knows better than to underestimate a Snyder coached team and will have his guys ready to play.  The Sooners are led by QB Landry Jones, who seems like he has been at Oklahoma since they became a state in 1907.  The winner will grab the driver's seat for the conference title.

Score: Kansas St. 31  Oklahoma 28

Validation GotW

(18) Michigan vs. (11) Notre Dame

This is a game that makes me wish that ties were still allowed in college football because at the end of the day I don't want to pick a winner.  In this classic rivalry, Michigan has gotten the best of Notre Dame the past three seasons, winning all three games by four points and scoring a touchdown in the last minute of the game.  Michigan is led by senior QB Denard "Shoelace" Robinson who should prove to be a more difficult match for the Notre Dame defense than Michigan State did last week.  Speaking of the Notre Dame D, how about last week?  They absolutely stymied Michigan State, led by gutsy senior LB Manti Te'o.  No matter how you feel about Notre Dame, and I think I have made clear my opinion, you have to be inspired by Te'o's performance a few days after the passing of both his grandmother and girlfriend.  Don't expect the same kind of performance this week from the Irish D but they will get the job done.

Score: Notre Dame 24 Michigan 17

 

Hmmm GotW

Rutgers vs. Arkansas

Rutgers has started the 2012 season by winning their first three games.  Arkansas's chance for a dream season was upended by an ill-fated motorcycle ride in the offseason and has only gotten worse the past two weeks after losing to Louisiana-Monroe in a shocker and being completely dismantled by Alabama.  If Arkansas has any hopes of regaining control of this tailspin, they must beat the Scarlet Knights.  There is no word yet about whether Arkansas QB has been cleared to play after suffering a concussion two weeks ago.

Score: Rutgers 27  Arkansas 24

Mid-major GotW
Southern Mississippi vs. Western Kentucky

Southern Mississippi has shown in years past that even though they play in Conference USA, they can play with the big boys from the big conferences.  That has not carried over so far this season, though, as the Golden Eagles are looking for their first win.  They are not likely to get it against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  The Toppers and coach Willie Taggart are coming off the biggest win they've had since moving up to the FBS series against the University of Kentucky. 

Score: WKU 35  So Miss 17

 

Trap GotW

Baylor vs. Louisiana-Monroe

What a difference a year makes.  Baylor surely misses their Heisman trophy winning QB from a year ago.  Although they have won their first two games of the season, the Bears struggled mightily early on against Sam Houston State.  Their opponent, the Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe, have huge momentum.  They defeated (8) Arkansas in overtime two weeks ago and took Auburn to OT last week.  And Baylor is making the trip to ULM.

Score: ULM 34 Baylor 31 OT

 

Redemption GotW

BYU vs. (24) Boise St.

As is often the case, both programs really need to win this game.  BYU is coming off one of the most bizarre endings in college football history when Utah fans had to storm the field three times before finally being able to claim victory over the Cougars.  (If you haven't seen it, You Tube it).  Boise State's run against BCS schools came to halt the first weekend of the season when they lost to Michigan State. 

 

Score: Boise St. 44  BYU 26

I Love the Smell of Pigskin in the Autumn

Labor Day is next weekend and its arrival marks the unofficial end of summer.  But don't cry for summer passing the torch to autumn because Labor Day also marks something else far more important: the beginning of the college football season.    With that said, here is look at some of the opening week's most interesting games.

Legitimacy GotW (Game of the Week) *2011 record in parentheses

14 Clemson (10-4)  vs 25 Auburn (8-5) in Atlanta, GA

This is a matchup between two teams looking to gain legitimacy in the national championship picture.  Clemson looked like a dark horse contender through the first eight games of last season.  They finished by losing four of their final six games, including a trouncing by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl.  The good news coming into this season, though, is the Tigers return many dynamic offensive weapons, including junior quarterback Tajh Boyd (a possible Heisman candidate) and sophomore wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

Auburn is two years removed from a national championship and would love nothing more than to be a contender in the SEC, which by default would make them a contender for the national title.  The problem is Auburn is stacked in a division with the likes of Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas who are all ranked in the preseason top 10; not to mention a game against SEC East foe Georgia (also in the top 10).  The War Eagles are going to start the season with sophomore QB Kiehl Frazier under center and will have to overcome the dismissal of star RB Michael Dyer.  In order for Auburn to attain legitimacy, they cannot afford a loss to a nonconference opponent due to their murderer's row conference schedule. 

Prediction: Clemson 31  Auburn 24

Championship GotW

8 Michigan (11-2)  vs 2 Alabama (12-1) in Dallas

It has been a few years since Michigan has been talked about as a factor on the national scene but nothing could put them back on that scene quicker than upsetting the defending national champs on a primetime stage in the House That Jerry Built.  The Wolverines are led by senior quarterback Denard "Shoelace" Robinson, a dual threat Heisman candidate, and junior running back Fitzgerald Toussaint.  The Maize and Blue have some holes to fill on D but do return all starting linebackers from a year ago and do have some experience on the line and in the secondary. 

What more can be said about Alabama?  The Crimson Tide has won two of the past three championships and are coached by the only man to win three BCS titles, Nick Saban.  They lost a lot on both sides of the ball from last year, but at the football factory, you just replace them and keep on chugging.  Overlooked and underappreciated junior quarterback, A.J. McCarron, returns to provide a steady hand at the helm of the offense and the defense will feature a bunch of guys who don’t have name recognition on Labor Day but will by the time Thanksgiving rolls around.

Prediction: Alabama 23  Michigan 17

Maker/Breaker GotW

9 South Carolina (11-2) vs Vanderbilt (6-7)

Steve Spurrier has been able to accomplish one of the most difficult tasks in college football while at South Carolina.  He has taken a school that has been historically mediocre and made them into a legitimate force.  Favored by several to win the SEC East, a loss to Vanderbilt could definitely be a season breaker for the Gamecocks.  They return junior quarterback Connor Shaw and hope workhorse junior running back, Marcus Lattimore, can return to form after a season-ending knee injury late last season.  Also, look for top 2011 recruit Jadaveon Clowney to have a monster season at defensive end for the Ol’ Ball Coach.

Vanderbilt exceeded expectations last season in coach James Franklin's first season on the job.  This year, the Commodores enter with expectations of making some noise in the SEC East.  A good way to do that would be a potential season making upset victory over a top 10 school like South Carolina.  The 'Dores return senior quarterback Jordan Rodgers (brother of Aaron), and top running back, Zac Stacy. 

Prediction: Vanderbilt 27  South Carolina 24

Intriguing GotW

22 Boise State(12-1)  vs 13 Michigan State (11-3)

Boise State is not afraid to play any team, anywhere, at any time.  There is perhaps no more underappreciated program over the past six or seven years than BSU, who is constantly being raked over the coals for playing in such a weak conference.  But when given the opportunity to play the bigger programs, all the Broncos have done is win: Oklahoma, Oregon, Georgia, TCU to name a few.  When they head to Lansing next weekend, though, it will be without stud quarterback Kellen Moore who graduated last season. 

Michigan State is much like Clemson; seemingly always on the fringe of something greater, yet not able to achieve it.  After losing in the conference championship game last season, this could be the year the Spartans finally breakthrough in the Big Ten.   The Spartans lose long time starting QB Kirk Cousins to the NFL but do return junior RB Le'Veon Bell  to tote the mail. 

Prediction: Michigan State 27  Boise State 17

Gotta Have It GotW

Kentucky (5-7) vs  25 Louisville (7-6)

Kentucky's five year bowl streak came to a halt last season and immediately put head coach Joker Phillips on the hot seat.  In order for Phillips to get to a fourth season, he will more than likely have to lead the Wildcats to a bowl bid this season.  For that to happen, his team will probably have to beat in-state rival Louisville.  The Wildcats don't return many weapons on either side of the ball from last season, but hope to have some new faces step up and make plays.

Louisville head coach Charlie Strong is facing expectations of a different kind.  The Cardinals are favored to win the Big East and hope to parlay that into some BCS credibility.  A loss to an underdog, in-state rival would certainly derail those thoughts.  The Cardinals return dynamic sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater and junior RB Dominique Brown.  Of course, the hallmark of any Charlie Strong team is the defense.

Prediction: Kentucky 28  Louisville 21

Who Cares GotW

Navy (5-7) vs  24 Notre Dame (8-5) in Dublin, Ireland

A few years ago, Navy shook the Notre Dame monkey off of their backs and ended an embarrassing  43 year losing streak to the Golden Domers.  Since then, the series has been evenly matched.  Going into this game, you can bet that Navy will be running the option, hoping to grind the clock and wear down the Fighting Irish defense.

In an effort to once again prove their relevance in college football, Notre Dame has scheduled the ultimate gimmick game: a matchup with a service academy in Dublin, Ireland.  Leave it to Notre Dame to challenge an inferior opponent in a gadget game thousands of miles away in front of real, fighting Irish.  Another unimpressive season would likely place head coach Brian Kelly firmly on the hot seat.   Kelly is turning to redshirt freshman QB Everett Golson to lead the way against the Midshipmen.

Prediction: Navy 33  Notre Dame 30 (2 OT)

Absurd Matchup of the Week

OKC Kindergartener Cooper Barton vs OKC School

In case you missed it this past week, Oklahoma City kindergarten student, Cooper Barton, wore a Michigan shirt to school and was asked by the principal to turn the shirt inside out because it was not an in-state school.  Yes, you read that correctly; this really happened.  Now, I can see why you would want to ask someone to remove that shirt (I find Michigan shirts offensive as well) but come on, this is just crazy.  I understand the school board policy because it was created to curb the blight of gang activity in Oklahoma City but just because gangs use colors and symbols of sports teams, we cannot ban them from society as if they are the real problem.   David Brandon, the Michigan athletic director, has already contacted the Barton family and offered them a chance to attend a Michigan home game this season.  The family has also received boxes of shirts, including one for Cooper to wear that has been printed on the outside and inside in case he ever has to turn it inside- out again. 

Prediction: The kid becomes a legend and the school district relaxes the rule, if not repealing it altogether.

I don't profess to be an expert on the game of college football and I don't hold a crystal football that allows me to see things before they happen.  These are just predictions to make the first weekend of college football a little more interesting (if that's possible).  If it turns out that my predictions are pretty good, then I will probably share more throughout the season.  If not, then you probably have seen my last predictions for a long time.