What Say You? Chris Sale or Stephen Strasburg?

The prevalent thought throughout baseball is that offense is great but if you don’t have arms, you won’t make it through October.  For the most part, this is a pretty accurate assessment.  There is a reason that you don’t see many slugfests in the postseason.  It’s because the teams with the best pitching are in the postseason and it is much easier to win a game if you are able to keep the scores low.  That is why you see owners and general managers salivating over young arms.

The sad fate, though, for most young pitchers is that they only seem to have 5-6years of fulfilled potential before getting derailed, either by injury or sheer overuse.  That is why you see teams being very careful how they use their young talent nowadays.  They put them on pitch limits, inning limits, and monitor stressful situations as well.  While this may protect the arm, pitchers are also not learning how to work through situations on the mound as they get fatigued and face a hitter for a third or fourth time.  This causes a greater need for more quality arms in the bullpen. 

Back in the day, there was no such thing as pitch counts and inning limits.  You threw until you couldn’t throw anymore.  A starting pitcher would throw between 40-45 games a season and would go the distance in probably 30 of those; whether he was having a good day or not.  Bob Feller, signed by the Cleveland Indians and playing in the major leagues at the age of 17, was one of these workhorses.  By the time he was 23, he had already won 107 games and struckout over 1,200 career batters (nearly half of his career total).  Although he had a Hall of Fame career, had it not been for a little thing called World War II, his numbers would have compared with the top five pitchers of all time.

But the game changed drastically from the 1940s to the 1980s when two more young phenoms surfaced.  The first was a slightly overweight, flame-throwing lefty from Mexico named Fernando Valenzuela.  Fernando debuted in September of 1980 at the age of 19 and had an outstanding rookie season the following year that could have been even greater if not for the strike.  (Well, it couldn’t have been much greater because he became the only rookie to win Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and the World Series in the same season).  By the time he was 25, Valenzuela had won 97 games, struckout over 1,250 hitters (roughly 60% of his career total; he played 11 more seasons), and had an ERA under 3.00. 

The other young ace that emerged in the early 1980s was a scrawny fireballer from Tampa, Florida named Dwight Gooden.  He made his debut with the New York Mets in 1984 at the age of 19 and it is arguable that no one that young has ever been so good, so fast.  A year after winning 17 games as a rookie, the then 20 year-old Gooden, better known as Doc, had one of the greatest seasons a pitcher has EVER had.  He was 24-4 with 268 strikeouts, pitched 276.2 innings, and had an unbelievable 1.53 ERA.  By the time he was 23, he had a career record of 91-35, over 1,000 strikeouts and a superb 2.62 ERA. 

In the cases of both Valenzuela and Gooden, Hall of Fame careers were derailed.  Valenzuela’s arm finally gave out and even though he pitched until the age of 37, he was only 76-85 the rest of his career with low strikeout numbers and an elevated ERA.  As for Gooden, his career was sidetracked by addiction and drug abuse.  While he was able to win 103 games over the last 11 seasons of his career, he was never the dominate presence on the mound that he had been early in his career. 

Valenzuela and Gooden (there are several others with similar stories) are reasons why management is so careful with young arms these days.  You don’t have to look very far to see how two different teams are using their young phenoms today in order to keep them healthy well beyond the age of 25.  The Chicago White Sox drafted Chris Sale in 2010 out of Florida Gulf Coast University and he was in The Show a month later.  The year before, the Washington Nationals drafted possibly the most coveted pitching prospect in the last two decades when they nabbed Stephen Strasburg with the first overall pick.  Here is a look at how the two have fared as major leaguers.

Chris Sale

Chris Sale was so well thought of by the White Sox brass that after being drafted in June, he was on the major league roster in July.  The White Sox had him projected to be a front of the rotation starter but for the rest of that season and the season to follow, he pitched out of the bullpen.  This allowed him to keep his innings down even though he would be pitching in more stressful situations and may have to pitch on back-to-back nights.  Sale appeared in 79 games in that year and a half and pitched 94.1 innings.  At the beginning of the 2012 season, the White Sox again had Sale coming out of the pen, but after only one appearance the decision was made for the gangly lefty with an awkward delivery to be inserted into the rotation.  That move has paid off immensely.  Here is a look at Sale’s 2012 season numbers thus far:

G   GS   W-L   ERA   IP     K      BB     H     WHIP

26   25    16-6   2.88   169   168   44    139    1.08

Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg was a star before he had ever been drafted by the Nationals.  He had grabbed headlines throughout the 2009 NCAA baseball season while he was pitching for a living legend, Tony Gwynn, at San Diego State (13-1 in 15 games, 1.32 ERA, 109 IP, 195 K, 19BB).  After being drafted and signed, Strasburg began the 2010 season in the minors but was on the major league roster by the first week of June.  Unfortunately, even with all the precautions being taken, Strasburg only made 12 starts that season before undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Last season, he returned to pitch in five games and to shake off the rust from the surgery.  This season, the only thing that has been more discussed than his performance on the field is his innings limit.  As I am sure all of you know by now, he was shut down after his last start (one start earlier than previously announced) because manager Davey Johnson felt like Strasburg’s performance was being affected by all of the hoopla surrounding him being shut down for the rest of the season.  But before being shut down, his season looked like this:

G   GS    W-L   ERA   IP         K      BB     H     WHIP

28   28    15-6    3.16   159.1   197    48      136    1.15

Verdict

Both pitchers have been instrumental to their teams (probably proven to be aces of the rotation) in the heat of a pennant race.  Sale has the luxury of being a nasty lefthander who is cut from a similar mold as Randy Johnson and has emerged as a legit Cy Young contender in the American League.  Strasburg has electric stuff and pinpoint control that is reminiscent of Roger Clemens.  I am not saying that either of these guys will achieve the same success as those guys but they are both top of the line starters.  If I had to make the call right now about which one I would choose, I would have to go with Strasburg.  In most situations, I would probably have to go with the lefty but there are not too many guys over the past three decades that have had the combination of tools that Strasburg has.  He throws 100 MPH with lots of movement, a 90 MPH changeup and a nasty slider.  He has pinpoint command of each of his pitches and knows how to take advantage of hitters.  Plus, Strasburg has already undergone Tommy John surgery and has seemingly bounced back from it without a hitch.  So, in the case of Chris Sale vs. Stephen Strasburg, what say you?

*Don’t miss the next installment of What Say You?  Giancarlo Stanton or Jason Heyward?  The answer might just surprise you.