Spring Fever

When I went outside yesterday morning, I heard the sounds, saw the sights, and felt the feelings of spring.  It was definitely in the air.  The temperature was in the mid-60s, birds were singing, and the air felt more like late March than late January.  By contrast, this morning when I went outside, it was 32 degrees and spitting snow.  Needless to say I was wishing for yesterday’s weather to return.  The more I thought about it, the more I was starting to get spring fever.  And spring fever can only mean one thing: baseball season. 

Other than Christmas, the beginning of baseball season is the most wonderful time of the year.  All 30 teams begin the marathon that is a 162 game season, each with aspirations of making the postseason.  Last year, three surprise teams made the playoffs: the Nationals, the Orioles, and the A’s.  The San Francisco Giants rode the hot bat of Buster Posey to their second World Series title in three years.  The first ever Wild Card games were played and the National League Wild Card Game led to a heated debate over the infield fly rule.  Every season brings new excitement and fresh storylines.  Here’s a preview of what I am looking forward to in the 2013 season.

7. Will the O’s and A’s Still Be a Factor?  There was a great debate at the end of last season as to which team was the most surprising in the American League.  Both the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics came into the season with little to no expectations for success (except in their own minds, of course).  Both teams were well under .500 in 2011 and had made no earth-shattering moves to improve their rosters leading into the 2012 season.  But that is why they play the games.  Baltimore valiantly battled the vaunted New York Yankees in the division before falling two games behind at the end but secured a wild card spot.  The A’s hung around all year before catching fire in September and making a gritty run at the Texas Rangers who had dominated that division the last couple of seasons.  Over the final ten days of the season, the A’s clawed from several games back and overtook the Rangers (mainly by winning several head-to-head games during that stretch) to win the AL West.  The Orioles were able to win by using young talent like Adam Jones, Matt Weiters, and Manny Machado on offense and a ragtag starting rotation on the hill.  Oakland won by throwing out solid, young starting pitchers and a bunch of ragtag, journeyman players who most teams had given up on.  I’ll be curious to see if either team can sustain last year’s success now that they will no longer be sneaking up on anyone.

6. Can’t Get Rid of the PED Stain: Here we are just a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training and a new PED scandal has emerged.  It was bad enough that the PED stain from the late 90s-early 2000s kept a few clean cut guys out of the Hall of Fame this year, but now we have a new PED mill in Miami and several names have already been linked to the clinic.  Among those are Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, and Yasmani Grandal, each who has served or is serving a 50-game suspensions from MLB last season.  The most surprising name on the list was Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez who had a breakout year last season.  Of course, the biggest name involved was that of Alex Rodriguez.  (I’ll have more on A-Rod a little further down.)  As much as we would like for this stain on the game to go away, it doesn’t appear as if that is going to happen any time soon; especially now that we have to worry about guys using deer antler extract.

5.  Billy Hamilton in Cincy:  This kid was the Minor League Baseball player of the year in 2012 and even though he has never played in an MLB game, he is generating some buzz in the Queen City.  He is expected to be in center field at some point this season and with the numbers he posted last year, there is no reason he shouldn’t be.  The thing that the 22 year old Hamilton brings to the table is speed and lots of it.  The kid is a burner.  He stole 155 bases last season in 132 games.  He attempted 192 steals!  That is ridiculous.  If he can even steal half that many in the majors, the Reds may have the perfect table setter for that powerful lineup for years to come.  And he may be able to achieve something that has not been achieved since 1987: swipe 100 bags in a season.  Vince Coleman was the last to accomplish this feat and it has only been done 8 times since 1900 by four different players.  Pre-1900, one player stole over 100 bases four separate seasons.  Ironically, his name was Billy Hamilton.

4.  Oh Canada!: It has been several years since the Toronto Blue Jays have had this much reason to be excited about the start of a baseball season.  Since the re-emergence of the Yankees in the mid-1990s, the breaking of some confounded curse in Boston, and the rise of the Rays in Tampa, the Blue Jays have been lost in the shuffle.  They have had solid teams but have been buried by the bankroll in New York and Boston and the scrappiness of Tampa (and even Baltimore last year).  Look for 2013 to be different.  The Jays have been very aggressive over the offseason.  They have acquired R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson for the top of their rotation.  They added a bonafide table setter in Jose Reyes and super utility guy, Emilio Bonifacio.  They signed (cheater) Melky Cabrera for the outfield and expect Jose Bautista to bounce back from his wrist injury.  Also, the Jays hope that Edwin Encarnacion can duplicate his career 2012 season.  With the Yankees looking the shed payroll and not making major noise this offseason and with Boston still trying to clean house from a horrendous collapse in 2011, this just might be the year of the Blue Jays in the AL East.

3. The A-Rod Saga:  I’m not ashamed to admit that I like to watch a good soap opera and in today’s TMZ-crazed world, celebrities provide us with real-life suds.  The biggest soapstar in MLB, it should go without saying, is Alex Rodriquez.  Before the Miami PED story broke, the biggest question concerning the aloof superstar was when and for whom would he return to the field after offseason hip surgery.  It’s no secret that the pouty infielder has worn out his welcome in The Big Apple but the Steinbrenners are on the hook for four years at over $25 million per for a guy who got pinch hit for several times in clutch September/October games.  Now the Steinbrenners, in a move that would make their papa smile, are trying to void the terrible contract.  It seems they were the last ones in the game to figure out it was a horrendous deal.  This story is just getting started, so like any good sudser, you must stay tuned.

2.  Up, Up, and J-Hey:  Honestly, coming from the perspective of a Braves fan, I should have put this as the number one reason that I am looking forward to the MLB season.  The Upton brothers, B.J. and Justin, are going to be keeping time in the Atlanta outfield this season with Jason Heyward.  This young outfield has the potential to be the most dynamic outfield in the game for the next three seasons (and beyond if they are able to sign Justin and Heyward to long-term deals).  The Braves have not had this much outfield firepower since 2002-03 when they had Chipper Jones in left, Andruw Jones in center, and Gary Sheffield in right.  If the three current outfielders can match the numbers projected in The Bill James Handbook 2013, they will combine for 74 HR, 243 RBI, and 74 SB.  After making the trade to get Justin last week, many analysts now feel that Atlanta is in the top two or three teams in baseball.  I hope they’re right.  (And in the spirit of giving just credit, David O’Brien, the Braves beat writer for the Atlanta Journal Constitution, was the first person I saw use the Up, Up, and J-Hey catchphrase.)

1.  Hollywood Nights: Look out Hollywood!  The Lakers will be old news by the time this baseball season gets under way.  With the arrival of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout in Anaheim and Magic Johnson headlining the new ownership of the Dodgers in 2012, Tinseltown has dominated the baseball headlines.  The Angels added to their lineup for 2013 by nabbing the biggest name and most productive offensive free agent in the game, Josh Hamilton.  The big question now is can Hamilton handle the glamour and the spotlight of Hollywood living?  If not, look for a major crash and burn.  Hamilton is already on his last strike when it comes to drug suspensions and if he were to get another, he is banished from the game for life.  Hopefully he will have the kind of presence around him in the Angels locker room that he was surrounded with in Texas because when he is on, he is the most fun to watch hitter in the game.  Picture a lineup with Trout leading off, Pujols batting third, Hamilton cleanup, and Trumbo batting fifth.  As for the Dodgers, they rolled the dice wildly last year trading and getting as many contracts as possible.  Time will tell if their aggressive front office moves will pay off but they certainly have revitalized an historic franchise that had run amok.  Since taking over, the new ownership added the large contracts of Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Zack Greinke to go along with the already large contract of Matt Kemp.  When you add in possibly the best left-handed pitcher in the game, Clayton Kershaw, and the much underrated Andre Ethier in right field, the Dodgers have a chance to become the Yankees of the west.

These are just a sample of things that I am looking forward to seeing this season.  Remember, pitchers and catchers report on February 11, the World Baseball Classic will begin in late February, and opening day is just around the corner on April 1.  Let me hear from you.  What are you looking forward to in the 2013 season?

P.S.: Some of you may have noticed that I did not mention expanded interleague play and the Houston Astros becoming part of the American League.  The simple reason is because I’m not looking forward to it.  My traditionalist views get in the way of such things but I don’t see why it was necessary to even the two leagues with 15 teams apiece allowing for interleague play on a daily basis. 

What Say You? Jason Heyward or Giancarlo Stanton?

When you score a young, prototypical corner outfielder who you project to be the cornerstone of your lineup for years to come, you have done something worth bragging about.  Knowing that you have just drafted a guy that will make it to majors quickly and not spend time trying to figure it out at the lower levels and knowing that you can pencil him in at the 3 or 4 hole everyday for 10-12 years or longer after he arrives is surely a comforting and satisfying feeling.  But, I am also sure that feeling is felt few and far between by big league executives because not all sure things pan out.

One such talent that did pan out at the major league level was Dave Winfield.  Winfield holds the distinction of being drafted professionally in football (Minnesota Vikings), basketball (Atlanta Hawks and Utah Stars), and baseball (San Diego Padres) when he came out of the University of Minnesota in 1973.  (What makes that even more impressive is that he never played football while at UM.)  As a matter of fact, the Padres were so enamored with him that he played in 56 ballgames for them the year they drafted him.  In his first full season with the club in 1974, Winfield hit 20 homers and drove in 75 runs, all at the age of 22.  Winfield played for several years with the Padres before moving on to the Big Apple and spending the 1980s with the Yankees, all the while proving to be one of the most consistent players in the game.  In 1992, while with the Toronto Blue Jays, Winfield was finally able to obtain the long awaited World Series ring that he was so sure would come to him while with the Yankees.  He finished his career with 3,110 hits, 1669 runs scored, 465 HRs, 1833 RBI, and a .283 AVG.  He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2001.

Before Dave Winfield, when the only draft available was to the military, not the major leagues, there was a young corner outfielder who was signed by the St. Louis Cardinals named Stan Musial.  In his first full season with the club in 1942, Musial hit .315 and drove in 72 runs.  Although hit took him a few years to find his power stroke (he never hit more than 19 homers in his first five full seasons) it eventually came to him and over the next ten years of his career, he only hit less than 27 homeruns one time (21 in 1952).  He never hit below .310 until his 18^th season in the big leagues at the age of 38.  Musial played for St. Louis for 22 seasons, missing only the 1945 season to serve in the military, and amassed one of the greatest careers in the history of the game.  He finished his Hall of Fame career with 3,630 career hits, over 1,300 extra-base hits, 475 homers, 1,951 RBI, and a .331 AVG.  And perhaps the most amazing statistic to the 21^st century fan, Musial walked 1,599 times in his career and struck out only 696.  (To put that in perspective, Mark Reynolds accumulated 638 Ks in three seasons from 2008-10.)  As a 22 year-old in 1943, Musial had more triples (20) than strikeouts (18).  Simply amazing!

In 2010, two 20 year-old outfielders with lofty expectations emerged in the National League East.  Both were stationed in right field for their respective teams and both showed they were not ordinary youngsters.  One made the opening day roster out of spring training and the other was up by early June.  One is a lefty, one a righty.  But both have proven in three seasons that they will be forces to contend with for years to come.  The lefty is Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves and the righty is Giancarlo (formerly Mike) Stanton of the Miami Marlins.

Jason Heyward

Once Jason Heyward was drafted by Atlanta in the first round of the draft in 2007, they knew they had something special.  Like many other Braves who had come before him, Jason was a local Georgia product.   He rocketed through the Braves system and was named Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America and USA Today in 2009.  After making the roster out of spring training the following year, Heyward hit a monstrous three-run homerun in his first major league at bat off of Carlos Zambrano.  He went on to hit 18 homers and drove in 72 in his rookie campaign.  In his second season, Heyward battled several nagging injuries and a little stubbornness and watched his numbers decrease; hitting only 14 homers, driving in 42, and hitting 50 points lower.  He has bounced back and proven to a reliable cog in the Braves offense this season.  Here is a look at his 2012 numbers so far:

 GP    AB  R     HR  RBI   AVG  OBP  SLG   OPS  SB/ATT 

147   546   87   27     75     .273    .340  .491    .831   19/27

Giancarlo Stanton

Mike Stanton was also drafted in 2007, and like Heyward, he was just 17 years old at the time.  But unlike Heyward, he managed to fall to the second round of the draft where he was scooped up by the Marlins.  He, too, soared through the Marlins system.  He began the 2010 season in AA ball in Jacksonville where in 52 games he hit 21 HR, had 52 RBI, and a mind boggling 1.167 OPS.  He leapfrogged AAA and made his MLB debut on June 8 of that year, going 3-5 and scoring two runs.  He finished the big league season with 22 HR and 59 RBI.  In his second year, he did not suffer from any slumps, blasting 34 bombs and knocking in 87 runs.  Before is third season, Stanton decided to return to being called by his given first name, Giancarlo.  Giancarlo has been limited this season due to some injuries but his production is still evident.  Here is a look at his season thus far:
 
GP    AB  R   HR RBI   AVG   OBP    SLG   OPS   SB/ATT 
117   471  71  34   81     .283    .354   .595   .949   6/8

Verdict

Of all of the comparisons I have done, this one is by far the most difficult in my mind.  Both of these guys appear poised to be a factor in the NL for many years to come.  Both have the prototypical power that you want from a corner outfielder who hits in the middle of the lineup.  Both are mature on the field and have a pretty even keel demeanor.  Both play good defense and have cannon arms.  This season, Heyward has shown that he can steal bases and has added that facet to his game.  Stanton, however, has over 200 fewer plate appearances in his career than Heyward but has over 30 more homers and nearly 40 more RBI.  The margin between the two is really razor thin.  But, if I have to make a decision (which I do, otherwise I would be copping out), I would have to take Stanton.  While Heyward has shown that he can bounce back from a down year and he has improved his running game, the power and run production of Stanton are too impressive to ignore.  Honestly, I don't think you can go wrong with either, but since I have to choose one, I did.  So, what say you, folks.  Jason Heyward or Giancarlo Stanton?

 *This brings an end to my young player comparisons but What Say You? will be back in a few weeks with an awards edition as I will be taking a look at all of the major MLB awards.