MLB Midterm Review

Now that the MLB All-Star game has been played, it is time to take a look back on what has happened thus far in the 2013 season.  On opening day, I made several predictions (and if you want to check them out you can just click here http://bit.ly/YWPdDP), and to be honest not too many of them were very good.  The worst prediction I made was that the Angels and Blue Jays were going to be the cream of the crop in the American League.  Boy was I wrong about that!  Both teams have been subpar.  I successfully jinxed both of my Cy Young winners; Jered Weaver suffered a freak broken elbow in his non-pitching arm and Stephen Strasburg has been pretty good but still has a losing record at the break.  Joey Votto was once again an All-Star but is hardly having an MVP season and Mike Trout is having an MVP season but it is for the most disappointing team in baseball.  The Rookie of the Year race in both leagues is up for grabs but the talent seems to be all in the National League where Evan Gattis, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, and Dodger phenom Yasiel Puig seem poised for an exciting finish whereas the lackluster AL rookie battle can conceivably be won by a player who has less than 20 RBI at the break.  It’s like Joaquin Andujar once said, “You can sum it up in one word: You never know.”  Without further ado, here are my most pleasant surprises and most disappointing ones for the first half.

Most Pleasantly Surprising Team

NL-Pittsburgh Pirates: How can anyone not root for these guys and this franchise that has not had a winning season in 21 years?  I am not completely surprised that they are having a great season but I am surprised that they have the second best record in the NL thus far.  They have a nice mixture of young talent (Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Pedro Alvarez) and some strong veteran leadership (A.J. Burnett, Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano), not to mention what may be the best story in MLB this season in closer Jason Grilli.  Grilli has converted 29/30 save opportunities and has an ERA less than 2.00.  Not bad for a 36-year-old guy who only had five career saves coming in to this season. 

AL-Cleveland Indians: It is hard to imagine that the Indians are only one game behind the Detroit Tigers for the Central division lead.  Seriously, who does this team have?  Well, they were aggressive in the offseason getting guys like Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher, they have made great trades over the past few years acquiring Justin Masterson, developing young talent like Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana, and going to the scrap heap to revive the careers of guys like Mark Reynolds and Scott Kazmir.  Oh yeah, they also brought in some guy named Francona to manage them.  Supposedly he broke some kind of curse in Boston or something.  Maybe he can do the same in Cleveland, a town that has not won a professional sports championship since 1964. 

Most Disappointing Team

NL-San Francisco Giants: To think that the team that has won two of the last three World Series is twelve games below .500 at the All-Star break is unfathomable, especially when you consider it is pretty much the same group of guys.  The starting rotation still includes Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner and the lineup still has Posey, Scutaro, Pence, and Sandoval.  Bruce Bochy hasn’t forgotten how to manage.  So what’s the problem?  Some of it has been injuries but most of it has been lackluster pitching combined with mediocre hitting.  I believe the Giants will get things turned around but they have too far to climb to be a contender this year.

AL-Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Blue Jays made a million trades in the offseason and were poised to have the best rotation in the AL if not all of baseball so the fact their pitching has been atrocious (and that may be a kind description) makes perfect sense, right?  And the Angels have spent billions of dollars the past two offseasons getting arms and bats so it just stands to reason they are only mediocre.  What else can you say about these two teams other than there is no reason they should be a combined nine games under .500 at the break.

Pleasant NL Youth Movement

Young arms have emerged and dominated in the National League this year.  The hapless Mets have a young stud in All-Star Game starter Matt Harvey and they have another waiting in Zack Wheeler, whom they received at the trading deadline two years ago in the Carlos Beltran trade with San Francisco.  These two could the cornerstone of the Mets rotation for the next decade.  Shelby Miller has been a rock in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation.  It seems the Cardinals have an endless abundance of starting pitching just laying in the weeds.  No wonder many analysts say they have the best farm system in baseball.  Patrick Corbin has been phenomenal this year for the first place Diamondbacks.  He has more wins that Harvey and the same ERA but gets much less hype due to playing in the desert.  And there are some young bats, too.  Evan Gattis, Jean Segura, and Yasiel Puig will make the highlight reels for many years to come.

Disappointing Veteran Free Agents

It doesn’t get more disappointing than B.J. Upton and Josh Hamilton.  Upton signed the largest free agent contract in the history of the Braves organization and has been an utter embarrassment at the plate through the first 95 games.  Upton has amassed 8 HR and 20 RBI in the first half.  His brother, Justin, who the Braves traded to get in the offseason, had those numbers three weeks into the season.  Josh Hamilton signed a mega-deal with the Angels much like the one that Albert Pujols signed after the 2011 season.  At the break, Hamilton has 14 HR, 39 RBI, a .224 AVG, .696 OPS, and 95 Ks in 339 at-bats.  Braves rookie Evan Gattis has 14 HR, 37 RBI, a .246 AVG, and an .873 OPS in 167 at-bats while making the major league minimum. 

All-Surprise Team : )

NAME                        TEAM             POS     HR      RBI     AVG  
Evan Gattis                 Braves             C         14        37        .246
Paul Goldschmidt       D’backs           1B       21        77        .313
Matt Carpenter           Cardinals         2B       9          45        .321 (NL leading 72 runs)
Jean Segura                Brewers           SS        11        36        .325(27 Stolen Bases)
Josh Donaldson          A’s                  3B       16        61        .310
Domonic Brown         Phillies            LF       23        67        .273
Carlos Gomez             Brewers           CF       14        45        .295 (21 SB)
Yasiel Puig                  Dodgers          RF       8          19        .391 (1.038 OPS, 38 Games)

                                                                        W-L     ERA    K         SV/OPP

Matt Harvey                 Mets                SP        7-2       2.35     147
Patrick Corbin              D’backs           SP        11-1     2.35     109
Shelby Miller               Cardinals         SP        9-6       2.92     112
Jason Grilli                   Pirates             CL                   1.99     63        29/30

All Surprise Team : (

NAME                         TEAM             POS     HR      RBI     AVG
Miguel Montero          D’backs           C         8          33        .224 (16/87/.284 2011-12)
Ike Davis                     Mets                1B       5          18        .165 (32/90/.225 2012)
Danny Espinosa          Nationals         2B       3          12        .158 (19/61/.242 2011-12)
Starlin Castro              Cubs                SS        6          29        .243 (12/72/.296 2011-12)
Mike Moustakas          Royals             3B       6          17        .215 (20/73/.242 2012)
Josh Hamilton             Angels             OF       14        39        .224 (34/111/.291 2011-12)
B.J. Upton                   Braves             CF       8          20        .177 (25/79/.244 2011-12)     
Josh Reddick              A’s                   RF       4          32        .218 (32/85/.242 2012)

                                                                        W-L     ERA    K         SV/OPP

Matt Cain                    Giants              SP        5-6       5.06     103
Josh Johnson               Blue Jays         SP        1-5       5.16     67
Mark Buehrle              Blue Jays         SP        5-6       4.89     77
R.A. Dickie                 Blue Jays         SP        8-10     4.69     92
Fernando Rodney        Rays                CL       3-2       3.79     56        22/27

Triple Crown Watch

Now that it has happened in my lifetime, I have come to expect someone to win the Triple Crown every year.  The best candidate to do so is, shockingly, Miguel Cabrera.  Coming off his 2012 Triple Crown MVP season, Cabrera only became the first player in MLB history to achieve 30+ HR and 90+ RBI at the All-Star break; all while batting a cool .365.  He could be on his way to becoming the first man ever to win the Triple Crown in back-to-back seasons.  (And let’s not forget this cat just turned 30 in April).  To accomplish that feat, though, he will have to surpass Baltimore’s Chris Davis who has 37 HR and only trails Miggy by two RBI.  I’ll say the odds are pretty good that Cabrera doesn’t repeat, but wouldn’t it be something if he did?

All in all, the first half of the season has been amazing and I see no reason why the second half won’t be even better.  The trading deadline is in two weeks and many teams will be looking to make moves.  Hold on tight, baseball fans!  It’s going to be a fantastic ride to the finish line. 

Spring Fever

When I went outside yesterday morning, I heard the sounds, saw the sights, and felt the feelings of spring.  It was definitely in the air.  The temperature was in the mid-60s, birds were singing, and the air felt more like late March than late January.  By contrast, this morning when I went outside, it was 32 degrees and spitting snow.  Needless to say I was wishing for yesterday’s weather to return.  The more I thought about it, the more I was starting to get spring fever.  And spring fever can only mean one thing: baseball season. 

Other than Christmas, the beginning of baseball season is the most wonderful time of the year.  All 30 teams begin the marathon that is a 162 game season, each with aspirations of making the postseason.  Last year, three surprise teams made the playoffs: the Nationals, the Orioles, and the A’s.  The San Francisco Giants rode the hot bat of Buster Posey to their second World Series title in three years.  The first ever Wild Card games were played and the National League Wild Card Game led to a heated debate over the infield fly rule.  Every season brings new excitement and fresh storylines.  Here’s a preview of what I am looking forward to in the 2013 season.

7. Will the O’s and A’s Still Be a Factor?  There was a great debate at the end of last season as to which team was the most surprising in the American League.  Both the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics came into the season with little to no expectations for success (except in their own minds, of course).  Both teams were well under .500 in 2011 and had made no earth-shattering moves to improve their rosters leading into the 2012 season.  But that is why they play the games.  Baltimore valiantly battled the vaunted New York Yankees in the division before falling two games behind at the end but secured a wild card spot.  The A’s hung around all year before catching fire in September and making a gritty run at the Texas Rangers who had dominated that division the last couple of seasons.  Over the final ten days of the season, the A’s clawed from several games back and overtook the Rangers (mainly by winning several head-to-head games during that stretch) to win the AL West.  The Orioles were able to win by using young talent like Adam Jones, Matt Weiters, and Manny Machado on offense and a ragtag starting rotation on the hill.  Oakland won by throwing out solid, young starting pitchers and a bunch of ragtag, journeyman players who most teams had given up on.  I’ll be curious to see if either team can sustain last year’s success now that they will no longer be sneaking up on anyone.

6. Can’t Get Rid of the PED Stain: Here we are just a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training and a new PED scandal has emerged.  It was bad enough that the PED stain from the late 90s-early 2000s kept a few clean cut guys out of the Hall of Fame this year, but now we have a new PED mill in Miami and several names have already been linked to the clinic.  Among those are Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, and Yasmani Grandal, each who has served or is serving a 50-game suspensions from MLB last season.  The most surprising name on the list was Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez who had a breakout year last season.  Of course, the biggest name involved was that of Alex Rodriguez.  (I’ll have more on A-Rod a little further down.)  As much as we would like for this stain on the game to go away, it doesn’t appear as if that is going to happen any time soon; especially now that we have to worry about guys using deer antler extract.

5.  Billy Hamilton in Cincy:  This kid was the Minor League Baseball player of the year in 2012 and even though he has never played in an MLB game, he is generating some buzz in the Queen City.  He is expected to be in center field at some point this season and with the numbers he posted last year, there is no reason he shouldn’t be.  The thing that the 22 year old Hamilton brings to the table is speed and lots of it.  The kid is a burner.  He stole 155 bases last season in 132 games.  He attempted 192 steals!  That is ridiculous.  If he can even steal half that many in the majors, the Reds may have the perfect table setter for that powerful lineup for years to come.  And he may be able to achieve something that has not been achieved since 1987: swipe 100 bags in a season.  Vince Coleman was the last to accomplish this feat and it has only been done 8 times since 1900 by four different players.  Pre-1900, one player stole over 100 bases four separate seasons.  Ironically, his name was Billy Hamilton.

4.  Oh Canada!: It has been several years since the Toronto Blue Jays have had this much reason to be excited about the start of a baseball season.  Since the re-emergence of the Yankees in the mid-1990s, the breaking of some confounded curse in Boston, and the rise of the Rays in Tampa, the Blue Jays have been lost in the shuffle.  They have had solid teams but have been buried by the bankroll in New York and Boston and the scrappiness of Tampa (and even Baltimore last year).  Look for 2013 to be different.  The Jays have been very aggressive over the offseason.  They have acquired R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson for the top of their rotation.  They added a bonafide table setter in Jose Reyes and super utility guy, Emilio Bonifacio.  They signed (cheater) Melky Cabrera for the outfield and expect Jose Bautista to bounce back from his wrist injury.  Also, the Jays hope that Edwin Encarnacion can duplicate his career 2012 season.  With the Yankees looking the shed payroll and not making major noise this offseason and with Boston still trying to clean house from a horrendous collapse in 2011, this just might be the year of the Blue Jays in the AL East.

3. The A-Rod Saga:  I’m not ashamed to admit that I like to watch a good soap opera and in today’s TMZ-crazed world, celebrities provide us with real-life suds.  The biggest soapstar in MLB, it should go without saying, is Alex Rodriquez.  Before the Miami PED story broke, the biggest question concerning the aloof superstar was when and for whom would he return to the field after offseason hip surgery.  It’s no secret that the pouty infielder has worn out his welcome in The Big Apple but the Steinbrenners are on the hook for four years at over $25 million per for a guy who got pinch hit for several times in clutch September/October games.  Now the Steinbrenners, in a move that would make their papa smile, are trying to void the terrible contract.  It seems they were the last ones in the game to figure out it was a horrendous deal.  This story is just getting started, so like any good sudser, you must stay tuned.

2.  Up, Up, and J-Hey:  Honestly, coming from the perspective of a Braves fan, I should have put this as the number one reason that I am looking forward to the MLB season.  The Upton brothers, B.J. and Justin, are going to be keeping time in the Atlanta outfield this season with Jason Heyward.  This young outfield has the potential to be the most dynamic outfield in the game for the next three seasons (and beyond if they are able to sign Justin and Heyward to long-term deals).  The Braves have not had this much outfield firepower since 2002-03 when they had Chipper Jones in left, Andruw Jones in center, and Gary Sheffield in right.  If the three current outfielders can match the numbers projected in The Bill James Handbook 2013, they will combine for 74 HR, 243 RBI, and 74 SB.  After making the trade to get Justin last week, many analysts now feel that Atlanta is in the top two or three teams in baseball.  I hope they’re right.  (And in the spirit of giving just credit, David O’Brien, the Braves beat writer for the Atlanta Journal Constitution, was the first person I saw use the Up, Up, and J-Hey catchphrase.)

1.  Hollywood Nights: Look out Hollywood!  The Lakers will be old news by the time this baseball season gets under way.  With the arrival of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout in Anaheim and Magic Johnson headlining the new ownership of the Dodgers in 2012, Tinseltown has dominated the baseball headlines.  The Angels added to their lineup for 2013 by nabbing the biggest name and most productive offensive free agent in the game, Josh Hamilton.  The big question now is can Hamilton handle the glamour and the spotlight of Hollywood living?  If not, look for a major crash and burn.  Hamilton is already on his last strike when it comes to drug suspensions and if he were to get another, he is banished from the game for life.  Hopefully he will have the kind of presence around him in the Angels locker room that he was surrounded with in Texas because when he is on, he is the most fun to watch hitter in the game.  Picture a lineup with Trout leading off, Pujols batting third, Hamilton cleanup, and Trumbo batting fifth.  As for the Dodgers, they rolled the dice wildly last year trading and getting as many contracts as possible.  Time will tell if their aggressive front office moves will pay off but they certainly have revitalized an historic franchise that had run amok.  Since taking over, the new ownership added the large contracts of Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Zack Greinke to go along with the already large contract of Matt Kemp.  When you add in possibly the best left-handed pitcher in the game, Clayton Kershaw, and the much underrated Andre Ethier in right field, the Dodgers have a chance to become the Yankees of the west.

These are just a sample of things that I am looking forward to seeing this season.  Remember, pitchers and catchers report on February 11, the World Baseball Classic will begin in late February, and opening day is just around the corner on April 1.  Let me hear from you.  What are you looking forward to in the 2013 season?

P.S.: Some of you may have noticed that I did not mention expanded interleague play and the Houston Astros becoming part of the American League.  The simple reason is because I’m not looking forward to it.  My traditionalist views get in the way of such things but I don’t see why it was necessary to even the two leagues with 15 teams apiece allowing for interleague play on a daily basis.